Birmingham vs Swansea match summary and prediction — Championship
Our model makes Birmingham the pick at 41% for Birmingham vs Swansea. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Swansea travel to Birmingham on 7 November 2026. Birmingham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 15 fixture in Championship is listed as Birmingham - Swansea. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Birmingham: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 8 conceded in eight matches, 1.25 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
Swansea: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 10 conceded in seven matches, 1.43 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Birmingham | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +10 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWW | WLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 2 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.25 / 1.0 | 1.43 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 67.5 | 56.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 32% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Birmingham two wins, Swansea none wins, none draws — an edge to Birmingham.
- Most recent meeting: Swansea 0-1 Birmingham on 08 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Birmingham 67.5 versus Swansea 56.8, a gap of 10.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Birmingham's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Birmingham at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Birmingham or Swansea?
Birmingham, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Birmingham, 26% the draw and 32% Swansea.
When and where is Birmingham vs Swansea being played?
7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Birmingham and Swansea?
Swansea 0-1 Birmingham on 08 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Birmingham and Swansea?
Birmingham have taken 12 points from their last five (WLWWW), Swansea 9 from theirs (WLLWW). Most recently Birmingham took a 3-1 win away at Lincoln and Swansea a 4-0 win at home to Blackburn.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham vs Swansea?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.60 for Birmingham and 1.60 for Swansea. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.