Cardiff vs Burnley: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Cardiff the pick at 56% for Cardiff vs Burnley. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Cardiff host Burnley on 7 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Cardiff are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 15 fixture in Championship is listed as Cardiff - Burnley. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cardiff: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 1.0 and 1.57 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -1.
Burnley: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 11 conceded in six matches, 0.83 and 1.83 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cardiff | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 22nd |
| Goal difference | -1 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWL | DLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.57 | 0.83 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.14 | 0.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.1 | 39.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 21% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Cardiff none wins, Burnley two wins, none draws — an edge to Burnley.
- Most recent meeting: Cardiff 1-2 Burnley on 04 March 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Cardiff 48.1 versus Burnley 39.7, a gap of 8.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Cardiff's way at 60%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Cardiff at 56%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. Cardiff's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cardiff's way, especially at Cardiff City Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cardiff or Burnley?
Cardiff, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Cardiff, 23% the draw and 21% Burnley.
When and where is Cardiff vs Burnley being played?
7 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cardiff and Burnley?
Cardiff 1-2 Burnley on 04 March 2025.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and Burnley?
Cardiff have taken 7 points from their last five (LWDWL), Burnley 5 from theirs (DLLDW). Most recently Cardiff took a 0-3 defeat away at Wolves and Burnley a 0-0 draw at home to Portsmouth.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Burnley?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.80 for Cardiff and 0.80 for Burnley. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.