Derby vs Bolton: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Derby the pick at 49% for Derby vs Bolton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Bolton travel to Derby on 6 November 2026 at Pride Park, Derby. Derby are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This matchday 15 fixture in Championship is listed as Derby - Bolton. Kick-off is 20:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Derby: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 0.86 and 1.86 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.2 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -14.
Bolton: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 19 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 2.71 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.3 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Derby | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 19th |
| Goal difference | -14 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLLD | LLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 11 | 7 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.86 / 1.86 | 1.14 / 2.71 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.2 | 36.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 49% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Derby 28.2 versus Bolton 36.3, a gap of 8.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Derby's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Derby at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Derby's way, especially at Pride Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Derby or Bolton?
Derby, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 49% Derby, 22% the draw and 29% Bolton.
When and where is Derby vs Bolton being played?
6 November 2026 at Pride Park, Derby, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Have Derby and Bolton met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Derby and Bolton?
Derby have taken 2 points from their last five (LDLLD), Bolton 4 from theirs (LLDWL). Most recently Derby took a 1-4 defeat away at Millwall and Bolton a 2-3 defeat at home to Bristol City.
How many goals are expected in Derby vs Bolton?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.60 for Derby and 1.20 for Bolton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.