Portsmouth vs Stoke City: match summary, form and prediction
There is barely anything between Portsmouth and Stoke City on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Stoke City travel to Portsmouth on 7 November 2026 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth. Stoke City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 35%. This matchday 15 fixture in Championship is listed as Portsmouth - Stoke City. Kick-off is 12:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Portsmouth: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 0.83 and 1.0 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.9 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +1.
Stoke City: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 2 conceded in seven matches, 1.71 and 0.29 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Portsmouth | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWW | WDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 7 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.83 / 1.0 | 1.71 / 0.29 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 2.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 61.9 | 59.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 35% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 4) | 2 | 2 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 4): Portsmouth two wins, Stoke City two wins, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Stoke City 1-3 Portsmouth on 25 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 4.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the four — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Portsmouth 61.9 versus Stoke City 59.3, a gap of 2.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Portsmouth's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Stoke City is the nominal pick at 35%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Portsmouth or Stoke City?
Stoke City, with an implied win probability of roughly 35%. The full split is 34% Portsmouth, 30% the draw and 35% Stoke City.
When and where is Portsmouth vs Stoke City being played?
7 November 2026 at Fratton Park, Portsmouth, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Portsmouth and Stoke City?
Stoke City 1-3 Portsmouth on 25 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Portsmouth and Stoke City?
Portsmouth have taken 11 points from their last five (DWDWW), Stoke City 10 from theirs (WDWLW). Most recently Portsmouth took a 0-0 draw away at Burnley and Stoke City a 2-0 win at home to Preston.
How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 0.80 for Portsmouth and 1.80 for Stoke City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.