Baltika vs Zenit: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Zenit the pick at 49% for Baltika vs Zenit. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Zenit travel to Baltika on 29 October 2026 at Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad. Zenit are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 49%. This group stage 5 fixture in Cup is listed as Baltika - Zenit. Kick-off is 18:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Baltika: they come in on two successive draws, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 6 conceded in eight matches, 0.88 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Zenit: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 7 conceded in seven matches, 2.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Baltika | Zenit |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWDL | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 9 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.88 / 0.75 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.25 | 2.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 25% | 49% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 0 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Baltika none wins, Zenit three wins, none draws — an edge to Zenit.
- Most recent meeting: Zenit 1-0 Baltika on 05 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Zenit's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Zenit at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Baltika or Zenit?
Zenit, with an implied win probability of roughly 49%. The full split is 25% Baltika, 26% the draw and 49% Zenit.
When and where is Baltika vs Zenit being played?
29 October 2026 at Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad, kick-off 18:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Baltika and Zenit?
Zenit 1-0 Baltika on 05 August 2026.
What is the recent form of Baltika and Zenit?
Baltika have taken 6 points from their last five (DDWDL), Zenit 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently Baltika took a 1-1 draw away at FC Krasnodar and Zenit a 3-2 win at home to Akhmat.
How many goals are expected in Baltika vs Zenit?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 0.60 for Baltika and 2.00 for Zenit. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.