CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes CSKA Moscow the pick at 40% for CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
CSKA Moscow host Lokomotiv on 29 October 2026 at VEB Arena, Moscow. CSKA Moscow are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This group stage 5 fixture in Cup is listed as CSKA Moscow - Lokomotiv. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
CSKA Moscow: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 9 conceded in seven matches, 0.86 and 1.29 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Lokomotiv: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 6 conceded in seven matches, 0.71 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | CSKA Moscow | Lokomotiv |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWL | DDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 7 | 11 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.86 / 1.29 | 0.71 / 0.86 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 32% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): CSKA Moscow one win, Lokomotiv none wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Lokomotiv 1-1 CSKA Moscow on 04 August 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans CSKA Moscow's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards CSKA Moscow at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts CSKA Moscow's way, especially at VEB Arena.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: CSKA Moscow or Lokomotiv?
CSKA Moscow, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% CSKA Moscow, 28% the draw and 32% Lokomotiv.
When and where is CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv being played?
29 October 2026 at VEB Arena, Moscow, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv?
Lokomotiv 1-1 CSKA Moscow on 04 August 2026.
What is the recent form of CSKA Moscow and Lokomotiv?
CSKA Moscow have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWWL), Lokomotiv 8 from theirs (DDWWL). Most recently CSKA Moscow took a 1-3 defeat away at Dynamo and Lokomotiv a 3-3 draw at home to FC Krasnodar.
How many goals are expected in CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.80 for CSKA Moscow and 0.60 for Lokomotiv. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is no.