Newport County vs Fleetwood Town: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Newport County the pick at 62% for Newport County vs Fleetwood Town. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Newport County face Fleetwood Town on 12 September 2026 at Rodney Parade, Newport. Newport County are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This matchday 6 fixture in League Two is listed as Newport County - Fleetwood Town. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Newport County: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.0 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -1.
Fleetwood Town: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 32 conceded in 25 matches, 1.0 and 1.28 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Newport County | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLW | WDDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 10 | 9 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.43 | 1.0 / 1.28 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.1 | 55.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 7% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Newport County 38.1 versus Fleetwood Town 55.8, a gap of 17.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.33, over 2.5 goals at 96% and both teams to score at 68%.
- First goal: Leans Newport County's way at 63%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Newport County at 62%, a gap of 31 percentage points to the next outcome. Fleetwood Town's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Newport County's way, especially at Rodney Parade.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Newport County or Fleetwood Town?
Newport County, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Newport County, 31% the draw and 7% Fleetwood Town.
When and where is Newport County vs Fleetwood Town being played?
12 September 2026 at Rodney Parade, Newport, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Newport County and Fleetwood Town?
Fleetwood Town 0-0 Newport County on 28 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Newport County and Fleetwood Town?
Newport County have taken 4 points from their last five (LLDLW), Fleetwood Town 9 from theirs (WDDWD). Most recently Newport County took a 0-1 defeat away at Northampton and Fleetwood Town a 2-0 win at home to Shrewsbury.
How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Fleetwood Town?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.33 — 2.33 for Newport County and 2.00 for Fleetwood Town. It rates over 2.5 goals at 96%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 68%, so its call is yes.