Accrington ST vs Cheltenham: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Accrington ST face Cheltenham on 3 October 2026 at The Wham Stadium, Accrington. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 9 fixture in League Two is listed as Accrington ST - Cheltenham. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Accrington ST: they come in on three successive draws, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 33 conceded in 24 matches, 0.96 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -3.
Cheltenham: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 44 conceded in 24 matches, 1.38 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.7 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Accrington ST | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDLW | WDDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 8 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.96 / 1.38 | 1.38 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.2 | 62.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Accrington ST 44.2 versus Cheltenham 62.7, a gap of 18.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 17 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 97% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Accrington ST's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Cheltenham's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Accrington ST or Cheltenham?
Neither side. Our model splits it 34% Accrington ST, 48% the draw and 18% Cheltenham, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham being played?
3 October 2026 at The Wham Stadium, Accrington, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham on 31 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Accrington ST have taken 6 points from their last five (DDDLW), Cheltenham 9 from theirs (WDDWD). Most recently Accrington ST took a 1-1 draw away at Swindon Town and Cheltenham a 2-1 win at home to Chesterfield.
How many goals are expected in Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.20 for Accrington ST and 2.20 for Cheltenham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 97%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.