Colchester vs Port Vale match summary and prediction — League Two
Our model makes Colchester the pick at 53% for Colchester vs Port Vale. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Colchester host Port Vale on 3 October 2026. Colchester are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 9 fixture in League Two is listed as Colchester - Port Vale. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Colchester: they come in on the back of a draw, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 22 conceded in 23 matches, 1.09 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.5 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -2.
Port Vale: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 44 conceded in 30 matches, 0.9 and 1.47 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.8 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Colchester | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 23rd |
| Goal difference | -2 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDDL | DLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 10 | 2 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 30 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.09 / 0.96 | 0.9 / 1.47 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.35 | 1.3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.5 | 36.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 10% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Colchester 34.5 versus Port Vale 36.8, a gap of 2.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 39%.
- First goal: Leans Colchester's way at 70%.
The call
The model tilts to Colchester at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Colchester or Port Vale?
Colchester, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Colchester, 38% the draw and 10% Port Vale.
When and where is Colchester vs Port Vale being played?
3 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Colchester and Port Vale met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Colchester and Port Vale?
Colchester have taken 3 points from their last five (DLDDL), Port Vale 4 from theirs (DLWL). Most recently Colchester took a 2-2 draw away at Shrewsbury and Port Vale a 1-1 draw away at Chesterfield.
How many goals are expected in Colchester vs Port Vale?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for Colchester and 1.60 for Port Vale. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 39%, so its call is no.