Gillingham vs Newport County match summary and prediction — League Two
Our model makes Gillingham the pick at 51% for Gillingham vs Newport County. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Newport County travel to Gillingham on 3 October 2026 at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham. Gillingham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 9 fixture in League Two is listed as Gillingham - Newport County. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Gillingham: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 45 conceded in 23 matches, 0.87 and 1.96 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
Newport County: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.0 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Gillingham | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 17th |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWW | WWDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 8 | 5 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.87 / 1.96 | 1.0 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 41.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 11% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Gillingham 58.8 versus Newport County 41.7, a gap of 17.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 89% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Gillingham's way at 65%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Gillingham at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Newport County's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Gillingham's way, especially at Priestfield Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gillingham or Newport County?
Gillingham, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Gillingham, 38% the draw and 11% Newport County.
When and where is Gillingham vs Newport County being played?
3 October 2026 at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Gillingham and Newport County met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Gillingham and Newport County?
Gillingham have taken 9 points from their last five (LLWWW), Newport County 8 from theirs (WWDDL). Most recently Gillingham took a 0-3 defeat away at York and Newport County a 2-1 win at home to Grimsby.
How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Newport County?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.00 for Gillingham and 1.60 for Newport County. It rates over 2.5 goals at 89%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.