Grimsby vs Shrewsbury match summary and prediction — League Two
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for Grimsby vs Shrewsbury. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Shrewsbury travel to Grimsby on 3 October 2026 at Blundell Park, Cleethorpes. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 9 fixture in League Two is listed as Grimsby - Shrewsbury. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Grimsby: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 26 conceded in 26 matches, 1.73 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +4.
Shrewsbury: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 40 conceded in 24 matches, 0.92 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.2 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Grimsby | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 18th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWD | DLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 26 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.73 / 1.0 | 0.92 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.88 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.7 | 40.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 37% | 16% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Grimsby 52.7 versus Shrewsbury 40.2, a gap of 12.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 15% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Grimsby's way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Grimsby or Shrewsbury?
Neither side. Our model splits it 37% Grimsby, 47% the draw and 16% Shrewsbury, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Grimsby vs Shrewsbury being played?
3 October 2026 at Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Grimsby and Shrewsbury met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Grimsby and Shrewsbury?
Grimsby have taken 7 points from their last five (LLWWD), Shrewsbury 5 from theirs (DLDWL). Most recently Grimsby took a 1-2 defeat away at Newport County and Shrewsbury a 2-2 draw at home to Colchester.
How many goals are expected in Grimsby vs Shrewsbury?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.60 for Grimsby and 0.80 for Shrewsbury. It rates over 2.5 goals at 15%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.