Northampton vs Oldham — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Northampton the pick at 47% for Northampton vs Oldham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Northampton host Oldham on 3 October 2026 at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton. Northampton are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 9 fixture in League Two is listed as Northampton - Oldham. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Northampton: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 55 conceded in 27 matches, 1.0 and 2.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.9 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -3.
Oldham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 25 conceded in 23 matches, 1.52 and 1.09 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.3 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Northampton | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 22nd | 20th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWD | LWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 4 | 3 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 27 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 2.04 | 1.52 / 1.09 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.59 | 1.52 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.9 | 27.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 12% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Northampton 40.9 versus Oldham 27.3, a gap of 13.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Northampton's way at 65%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Northampton at 47%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Northampton's way, especially at Sixfields Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Northampton or Oldham?
Northampton, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Northampton, 41% the draw and 12% Oldham.
When and where is Northampton vs Oldham being played?
3 October 2026 at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Northampton and Oldham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Northampton and Oldham?
Northampton have taken 4 points from their last four (LLWD), Oldham 3 from theirs (LWLLL). Most recently Northampton took a 0-1 defeat at home to Rotherham and Oldham a 1-4 defeat at home to Salford City.
How many goals are expected in Northampton vs Oldham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Northampton and 1.20 for Oldham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 19%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.