Salford City vs Fleetwood Town: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Salford City the pick at 56% for Salford City vs Fleetwood Town. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Salford City host Fleetwood Town on 3 October 2026 at Peninsula Stadium, Salford. Salford City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 9 fixture in League Two is listed as Salford City - Fleetwood Town. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Salford City: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 29 conceded in 28 matches, 1.18 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Fleetwood Town: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 32 conceded in 25 matches, 1.0 and 1.28 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Salford City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 14th |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWDW | LLLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 4 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 28 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.18 / 1.04 | 1.0 / 1.28 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.71 | 1.08 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 68.8 | 41.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 8% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Salford City 68.8 versus Fleetwood Town 41.7, a gap of 27.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.30, over 2.5 goals at 35% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Salford City's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Salford City at 56%, a gap of 21 percentage points to the next outcome. Salford City's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Salford City's way, especially at Peninsula Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Salford City or Fleetwood Town?
Salford City, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Salford City, 35% the draw and 8% Fleetwood Town.
When and where is Salford City vs Fleetwood Town being played?
3 October 2026 at Peninsula Stadium, Salford, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Salford City and Fleetwood Town met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Salford City and Fleetwood Town?
Salford City have taken 10 points from their last five (WLWDW), Fleetwood Town 4 from theirs (LLLWD). Most recently Salford City took a 4-1 win away at Oldham and Fleetwood Town a 1-2 defeat at home to Rochdale.
How many goals are expected in Salford City vs Fleetwood Town?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.30 — 1.80 for Salford City and 1.50 for Fleetwood Town. It rates over 2.5 goals at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.