Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Bristol Rovers the pick at 58% for Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Bristol Rovers face Swindon Town on 24 October 2026 at Memorial Stadium, Bristol. Bristol Rovers are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as Bristol Rovers - Swindon Town. Kick-off is 11:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Bristol Rovers: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 28 conceded in 25 matches, 1.76 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.0 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -4.
Swindon Town: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 35 conceded in 25 matches, 1.4 and 1.4 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.9 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bristol Rovers | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | WDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 13 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.76 / 1.12 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.0 | 40.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Bristol Rovers 34.0 versus Swindon Town 40.9, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Bristol Rovers' way at 60%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Bristol Rovers at 58%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. Swindon Town's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Bristol Rovers's way, especially at Memorial Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bristol Rovers or Swindon Town?
Bristol Rovers, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Bristol Rovers, 21% the draw and 20% Swindon Town.
When and where is Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town being played?
24 October 2026 at Memorial Stadium, Bristol, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town 1-1 Bristol Rovers on 28 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Bristol Rovers and Swindon Town?
Bristol Rovers have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), Swindon Town 5 from theirs (WDLLD). Most recently Bristol Rovers took a 1-2 defeat at home to Salford City and Swindon Town a 3-1 win away at Barnet.
How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.60 for Bristol Rovers and 1.80 for Swindon Town. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.