Cheltenham vs Newport County match summary and prediction — League Two
Our model makes Cheltenham the pick at 47% for Cheltenham vs Newport County. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Newport County travel to Cheltenham on 24 October 2026 at Whaddon Road, Cheltenham. Cheltenham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as Cheltenham - Newport County. Kick-off is 11:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cheltenham: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 44 conceded in 24 matches, 1.38 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of -1.
Newport County: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, four draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.0 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.2 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Cheltenham | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLL | DDWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 12 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.38 / 1.83 | 1.0 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.8 | 55.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Cheltenham 44.8 versus Newport County 55.2, a gap of 10.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Cheltenham's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Cheltenham at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Newport County's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cheltenham's way, especially at Whaddon Road.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cheltenham or Newport County?
Cheltenham, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Cheltenham, 27% the draw and 26% Newport County.
When and where is Cheltenham vs Newport County being played?
24 October 2026 at Whaddon Road, Cheltenham, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cheltenham and Newport County?
Cheltenham 1-0 Newport County on 18 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Cheltenham and Newport County?
Cheltenham have taken 4 points from their last five (WLDLL), Newport County 7 from theirs (DDWDD). Most recently Cheltenham took a 4-2 win at home to Fleetwood Town and Newport County a 2-2 draw away at Rotherham.
How many goals are expected in Cheltenham vs Newport County?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for Cheltenham and 1.00 for Newport County. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.