Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Exeter City and Fleetwood Town on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Exeter City face Fleetwood Town on 24 October 2026 at St James Park, Exeter. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 37%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as Exeter City - Fleetwood Town. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Exeter City: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (26 scored and 49 conceded in 24 matches, 1.08 and 2.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +2.
Fleetwood Town: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 32 conceded in 25 matches, 1.0 and 1.28 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Exeter City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 18th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDW | LWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 9 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.08 / 2.04 | 1.0 / 1.28 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 34% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Exeter City 58.8 versus Fleetwood Town 38.1, a gap of 20.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Fleetwood Town's way at 46%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 37%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Exeter City or Fleetwood Town?
Neither side. Our model splits it 29% Exeter City, 37% the draw and 34% Fleetwood Town, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town being played?
24 October 2026 at St James Park, Exeter, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Exeter City and Fleetwood Town met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Exeter City and Fleetwood Town?
Exeter City have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWDW), Fleetwood Town 7 from theirs (LWDWL). Most recently Exeter City took a 2-0 win at home to Crewe and Fleetwood Town a 2-4 defeat away at Cheltenham.
How many goals are expected in Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.60 for Exeter City and 1.40 for Fleetwood Town. It rates over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.