Gillingham vs Grimsby match summary and prediction — League Two
Our model makes Grimsby the pick at 50% for Gillingham vs Grimsby. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Gillingham host Grimsby on 24 October 2026 at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham. Grimsby are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as Gillingham - Grimsby. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Gillingham: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 45 conceded in 23 matches, 0.87 and 1.96 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.4 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +3.
Grimsby: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 26 conceded in 26 matches, 1.73 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.3 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Gillingham | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 17th |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWWD | DLLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 8 | 3 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.87 / 1.96 | 1.73 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.83 | 1.88 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.4 | 28.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 20% | 50% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Gillingham 42.4 versus Grimsby 28.3, a gap of 14.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Grimsby's way at 62%.
The call
The model tilts to Grimsby at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Gillingham's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Gillingham or Grimsby?
Grimsby, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 20% Gillingham, 30% the draw and 50% Grimsby.
When and where is Gillingham vs Grimsby being played?
24 October 2026 at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Gillingham and Grimsby?
Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby on 18 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Gillingham and Grimsby?
Gillingham have taken 8 points from their last five (DLWWD), Grimsby 2 from theirs (DLLDL). Most recently Gillingham took a 1-1 draw at home to Port Vale and Grimsby a 2-2 draw away at Rochdale.
How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Grimsby?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.60 for Gillingham and 1.80 for Grimsby. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.