Northampton vs Colchester — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Colchester the pick at 45% for Northampton vs Colchester. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Colchester travel to Northampton on 24 October 2026 at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton. Colchester are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as Northampton - Colchester. Kick-off is 11:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Northampton: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 55 conceded in 27 matches, 1.0 and 2.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -2.
Colchester: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 22 conceded in 23 matches, 1.09 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Northampton | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 19th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDL | DDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 4 | 2 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 27 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 2.04 | 1.09 / 0.96 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.59 | 1.35 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.8 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 45% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Colchester's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Colchester at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Northampton or Colchester?
Colchester, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 28% Northampton, 27% the draw and 45% Colchester.
When and where is Northampton vs Colchester being played?
24 October 2026 at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, kick-off 11:30 UTC.
Have Northampton and Colchester met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Northampton and Colchester?
Northampton have taken 4 points from their last four (LWDL), Colchester 3 from theirs (DDLD). Most recently Northampton took a 0-1 defeat at home to Tranmere and Colchester a 1-1 draw away at Chesterfield.
How many goals are expected in Northampton vs Colchester?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Northampton and 1.20 for Colchester. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.