Rochdale vs Accrington ST — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Rochdale and Accrington ST on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Rochdale face Accrington ST on 24 October 2026 at Spotland, Rochdale. Rochdale are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as Rochdale - Accrington ST. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rochdale: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored six and conceded eleven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.2 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -2.
Accrington ST: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored seven and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.2 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Rochdale | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 11th |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDLW | DWDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 11 | 7 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.2 | 55.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Rochdale 51.2 versus Accrington ST 55.2, a gap of 4.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Accrington ST's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Rochdale is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. Accrington ST's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rochdale's way, especially at Spotland.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rochdale or Accrington ST?
Rochdale, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Rochdale, 29% the draw and 33% Accrington ST.
When and where is Rochdale vs Accrington ST being played?
24 October 2026 at Spotland, Rochdale, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Rochdale and Accrington ST met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rochdale and Accrington ST?
Rochdale have taken 5 points from their last five (DLDLW), Accrington ST 9 from theirs (DWDDW). Most recently Rochdale took a 2-2 draw at home to Grimsby and Accrington ST a 1-1 draw away at York.
How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.20 for Rochdale and 1.40 for Accrington ST. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.