Rotherham vs Shrewsbury: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Rotherham and Shrewsbury on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Shrewsbury travel to Rotherham on 24 October 2026 at New York Stadium, Rotherham. Rotherham are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as Rotherham - Shrewsbury. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rotherham: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 40 conceded in 24 matches, 0.75 and 1.67 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.2 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -6.
Shrewsbury: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 40 conceded in 24 matches, 0.92 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.3 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rotherham | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 22nd | 8th |
| Goal difference | -6 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLLL | WWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 13 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.75 / 1.67 | 0.92 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.71 | 1.12 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.2 | 57.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 34% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Rotherham 30.2 versus Shrewsbury 57.3, a gap of 27.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Rotherham's way at 46%.
The call
The model does not commit. Rotherham is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. Shrewsbury's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Rotherham's way, especially at New York Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rotherham or Shrewsbury?
Rotherham, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Rotherham, 30% the draw and 34% Shrewsbury.
When and where is Rotherham vs Shrewsbury being played?
24 October 2026 at New York Stadium, Rotherham, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Rotherham and Shrewsbury met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rotherham and Shrewsbury?
Rotherham have taken 1 points from their last five (DLLLL), Shrewsbury 9 from theirs (WWLLW). Most recently Rotherham took a 2-2 draw at home to Newport County and Shrewsbury a 3-2 win away at Crawley Town.
How many goals are expected in Rotherham vs Shrewsbury?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for Rotherham and 0.80 for Shrewsbury. It rates over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is no.