York vs Port Vale: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes York the pick at 48% for York vs Port Vale. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Port Vale travel to York on 24 October 2026 at York`s LNER Community Stadium, York. York are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 13 fixture in League Two is listed as York - Port Vale. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
York: they come in on three successive draws, following one win before that. That is one win, three draws and no defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those four they scored six and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +6.
Port Vale: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins before that. That is three wins, one draw and no defeats from the last four, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those four they scored five and conceded one, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.3 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | York | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 20th |
| Goal difference | +6 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDW | DWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 5 / 1 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.5 | 57.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: York 46.5 versus Port Vale 57.3, a gap of 10.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans York's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to York at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Port Vale's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts York's way, especially at York`s LNER Community Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: York or Port Vale?
York, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% York, 26% the draw and 26% Port Vale.
When and where is York vs Port Vale being played?
24 October 2026 at York`s LNER Community Stadium, York, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have York and Port Vale met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of York and Port Vale?
York have taken 6 points from their last four (DDDW), Port Vale 10 from theirs (DWWW). Most recently York took a 1-1 draw at home to Accrington ST and Port Vale a 1-1 draw away at Gillingham.
How many goals are expected in York vs Port Vale?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.60 for York and 0.40 for Port Vale. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.