Accrington ST vs Northampton: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Accrington ST the pick at 54% for Accrington ST vs Northampton. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Accrington ST face Northampton on 31 October 2026 at The Crown Ground, Accrington. Accrington ST are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 14 fixture in League Two is listed as Accrington ST - Northampton. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Accrington ST: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three draws before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 33 conceded in 24 matches, 0.96 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +6.
Northampton: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 55 conceded in 27 matches, 1.0 and 2.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Accrington ST | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 19th |
| Goal difference | +6 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDD | WLWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 3 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 27 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.96 / 1.38 | 1.0 / 2.04 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.08 | 0.59 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.2 | 48.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Accrington ST 63.2 versus Northampton 48.3, a gap of 14.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Accrington ST's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to Accrington ST at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Accrington ST's way, especially at The Crown Ground.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Accrington ST or Northampton?
Accrington ST, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Accrington ST, 28% the draw and 18% Northampton.
When and where is Accrington ST vs Northampton being played?
31 October 2026 at The Crown Ground, Accrington, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Accrington ST and Northampton met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Accrington ST and Northampton?
Accrington ST have taken 9 points from their last five (WDWDD), Northampton 7 from theirs (WLWDL). Most recently Accrington ST took a 5-0 win away at Rochdale and Northampton a 2-0 win at home to Colchester.
How many goals are expected in Accrington ST vs Northampton?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 2.40 for Accrington ST and 0.80 for Northampton. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.