Newport County vs Chesterfield match summary and prediction — League Two
Our model makes Chesterfield the pick at 54% for Newport County vs Chesterfield. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Newport County face Chesterfield on 30 October 2026 at Rodney Parade, Newport. Chesterfield are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 14 fixture in League Two is listed as Newport County - Chesterfield. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Newport County: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.0 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of 0.
Chesterfield: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 23 conceded in 24 matches, 1.33 and 0.96 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.2 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Newport County | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 7th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDWD | WDLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 12 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.43 | 1.33 / 0.96 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.17 | 1.79 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 53.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 21% | 54% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Newport County 45.0 versus Chesterfield 53.2, a gap of 8.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Chesterfield's way at 59%.
The call
The model tilts to Chesterfield at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Chesterfield's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Newport County or Chesterfield?
Chesterfield, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 21% Newport County, 24% the draw and 54% Chesterfield.
When and where is Newport County vs Chesterfield being played?
30 October 2026 at Rodney Parade, Newport, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Newport County and Chesterfield?
Newport County 2-1 Chesterfield on 24 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Newport County and Chesterfield?
Newport County have taken 6 points from their last five (LDDWD), Chesterfield 8 from theirs (WDLDW). Most recently Newport County took a 0-1 defeat away at Cheltenham and Chesterfield a 5-1 win at home to Crewe.
How many goals are expected in Newport County vs Chesterfield?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 0.60 for Newport County and 3.20 for Chesterfield. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.