Port Vale vs Rochdale: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Port Vale the pick at 65% for Port Vale vs Rochdale. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Port Vale face Rochdale on 31 October 2026 at Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent. Port Vale are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 65%. This matchday 14 fixture in League Two is listed as Port Vale - Rochdale. Kick-off is 12:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Port Vale: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.8 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -6.
Rochdale: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 13 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 2.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.9 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Port Vale | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 17th |
| Goal difference | -6 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDWW | LDLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 3 | 5 / 16 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.17 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 2.17 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 0.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.8 | 39.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 65% | 14% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Port Vale 46.8 versus Rochdale 39.9, a gap of 6.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Port Vale's way at 65%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Port Vale at 65%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. Port Vale's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Port Vale's way, especially at Vale Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Port Vale or Rochdale?
Port Vale, with an implied win probability of roughly 65%. The full split is 65% Port Vale, 21% the draw and 14% Rochdale.
When and where is Port Vale vs Rochdale being played?
31 October 2026 at Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Have Port Vale and Rochdale met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Port Vale and Rochdale?
Port Vale have taken 10 points from their last five (WLDWW), Rochdale 2 from theirs (LDLDL). Most recently Port Vale took a 5-0 win at home to Manchester City U21 and Rochdale a 0-5 defeat at home to Accrington ST.
How many goals are expected in Port Vale vs Rochdale?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.40 for Port Vale and 0.80 for Rochdale. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.