Shrewsbury vs Gillingham: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Shrewsbury the pick at 60% for Shrewsbury vs Gillingham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Gillingham travel to Shrewsbury on 31 October 2026 at New Meadow, Shrewsbury. Shrewsbury are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 60%. This matchday 14 fixture in League Two is listed as Shrewsbury - Gillingham. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Shrewsbury: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 40 conceded in 24 matches, 0.92 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.3 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -4.
Gillingham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 45 conceded in 23 matches, 0.87 and 1.96 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Shrewsbury | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWL | LDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 11 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 24 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.92 / 1.67 | 0.87 / 1.96 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.12 | 0.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.3 | 41.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 60% | 16% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Shrewsbury 57.3 versus Gillingham 41.7, a gap of 15.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Shrewsbury's way at 61%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Shrewsbury at 60%, a gap of 36 percentage points to the next outcome. Shrewsbury's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Shrewsbury's way, especially at New Meadow.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Shrewsbury or Gillingham?
Shrewsbury, with an implied win probability of roughly 60%. The full split is 60% Shrewsbury, 24% the draw and 16% Gillingham.
When and where is Shrewsbury vs Gillingham being played?
31 October 2026 at New Meadow, Shrewsbury, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Shrewsbury and Gillingham?
Gillingham 1-0 Shrewsbury on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Shrewsbury and Gillingham?
Shrewsbury have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWWL), Gillingham 7 from theirs (LDLWW). Most recently Shrewsbury took a 2-1 win at home to Everton U21 and Gillingham a 1-4 defeat at home to Grimsby.
How many goals are expected in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.60 for Shrewsbury and 1.60 for Gillingham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.