Tranmere vs Cheltenham — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Tranmere the pick at 47% for Tranmere vs Cheltenham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Cheltenham travel to Tranmere on 31 October 2026 at Prenton Park, Wirral. Tranmere are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 14 fixture in League Two is listed as Tranmere - Cheltenham. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Tranmere: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 39 conceded in 23 matches, 0.74 and 1.7 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of 0.
Cheltenham: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 44 conceded in 24 matches, 1.38 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of 0.
Side by side
| Statistic | Tranmere | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLDL | WWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 8 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.74 / 1.7 | 1.38 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.65 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.7 | 45.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 30% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Tranmere 41.7 versus Cheltenham 45.0, a gap of 3.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Tranmere's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Tranmere at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Tranmere's way, especially at Prenton Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tranmere or Cheltenham?
Tranmere, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Tranmere, 24% the draw and 30% Cheltenham.
When and where is Tranmere vs Cheltenham being played?
31 October 2026 at Prenton Park, Wirral, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Tranmere and Cheltenham?
Cheltenham 1-3 Tranmere on 21 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Tranmere and Cheltenham?
Tranmere have taken 5 points from their last five (DWLDL), Cheltenham 7 from theirs (WWLDL). Most recently Tranmere took a 1-1 draw away at Crawley Town and Cheltenham a 1-0 win at home to Newport County.
How many goals are expected in Tranmere vs Cheltenham?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.40 for Tranmere and 2.00 for Cheltenham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.