Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Bristol Rovers host Chesterfield on 14 November 2026 at Memorial Stadium, Bristol. Bristol Rovers are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 15 fixture in League Two is listed as Bristol Rovers - Chesterfield. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Bristol Rovers: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 7 conceded in eight matches, 0.75 and 0.88 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -6.
Chesterfield: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 17 conceded in eight matches, 2.62 and 2.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.4 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Bristol Rovers | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -6 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLL | WLWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 11 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.75 / 0.88 | 2.62 / 2.12 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.8 | 42.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 36% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Bristol Rovers 26.8 versus Chesterfield 42.4, a gap of 15.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Chesterfield's way at 48%.
The call
The model does not commit. Bristol Rovers is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. Chesterfield's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Bristol Rovers's way, especially at Memorial Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Bristol Rovers or Chesterfield?
Bristol Rovers, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Bristol Rovers, 26% the draw and 36% Chesterfield.
When and where is Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield being played?
14 November 2026 at Memorial Stadium, Bristol, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield?
Bristol Rovers 2-3 Chesterfield on 07 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield?
Bristol Rovers have taken 4 points from their last five (WLDLL), Chesterfield 7 from theirs (WLWDL). Most recently Bristol Rovers took a 2-0 win at home to Cambridge United and Chesterfield a 4-3 win at home to Yeovil Town.
How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 0.60 for Bristol Rovers and 3.40 for Chesterfield. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.