Colchester vs Gillingham: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Colchester the pick at 54% for Colchester vs Gillingham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Colchester host Gillingham on 14 November 2026. Colchester are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 15 fixture in League Two is listed as Colchester - Gillingham. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Colchester: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (4 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 0.57 and 1.86 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.9 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -7.
Gillingham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 1.43 and 1.57 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Colchester | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 8th |
| Goal difference | -7 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDD | LWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 6 | 5 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.57 / 1.86 | 1.43 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.57 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.9 | 48.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 23% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Colchester 29.9 versus Gillingham 48.6, a gap of 18.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Colchester's way at 61%.
The call
The model tilts to Colchester at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Colchester's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Colchester or Gillingham?
Colchester, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Colchester, 23% the draw and 23% Gillingham.
When and where is Colchester vs Gillingham being played?
14 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Colchester and Gillingham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Colchester and Gillingham?
Colchester have taken 5 points from their last five (WLLDD), Gillingham 4 from theirs (LWLDL). Most recently Colchester took a 1-0 win at home to Worcester City and Gillingham a 0-1 defeat at home to Barrow.
How many goals are expected in Colchester vs Gillingham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 0.80 for Colchester and 1.80 for Gillingham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.