Crewe vs Newport County: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Crewe the pick at 41% for Crewe vs Newport County. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Crewe face Newport County on 14 November 2026 at Alexandra Stadium, Crewe. Crewe are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 15 fixture in League Two is listed as Crewe - Newport County. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Crewe: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 12 conceded in seven matches, 1.43 and 1.71 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of 0.
Newport County: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 10 conceded in eight matches, 1.38 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Crewe | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 14th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLLW | WLWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 11 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.43 / 1.71 | 1.38 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.43 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.3 | 52.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 33% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Crewe 48.3 versus Newport County 52.4, a gap of 4.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Crewe's way at 53%.
The call
The model edges towards Crewe at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Crewe's way, especially at Alexandra Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Crewe or Newport County?
Crewe, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Crewe, 26% the draw and 33% Newport County.
When and where is Crewe vs Newport County being played?
14 November 2026 at Alexandra Stadium, Crewe, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Crewe and Newport County met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Crewe and Newport County?
Crewe have taken 7 points from their last five (WDLLW), Newport County 7 from theirs (WLWLD). Most recently Crewe took a 2-1 win at home to AFC Wimbledon and Newport County a 3-1 win at home to Walsall.
How many goals are expected in Crewe vs Newport County?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.20 for Crewe and 1.80 for Newport County. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.