Exeter City vs Cheltenham — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Exeter City the pick at 46% for Exeter City vs Cheltenham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Exeter City host Cheltenham on 14 November 2026 at St James Park, Exeter. Exeter City are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 15 fixture in League Two is listed as Exeter City - Cheltenham. Kick-off is 12:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Exeter City: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 8 conceded in eight matches, 1.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +2.
Cheltenham: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 1.86 and 1.57 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.5 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Exeter City | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWD | WLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.86 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.38 | 1.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 44.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Exeter City 58.8 versus Cheltenham 44.5, a gap of 14.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Exeter City's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Exeter City at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Exeter City's way, especially at St James Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Exeter City or Cheltenham?
Exeter City, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Exeter City, 27% the draw and 27% Cheltenham.
When and where is Exeter City vs Cheltenham being played?
14 November 2026 at St James Park, Exeter, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Have Exeter City and Cheltenham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Exeter City and Cheltenham?
Exeter City have taken 10 points from their last five (WLWWD), Cheltenham 9 from theirs (WLWWL). Most recently Exeter City took a 2-1 win away at Huddersfield and Cheltenham a 2-0 win at home to FC Halifax Town.
How many goals are expected in Exeter City vs Cheltenham?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.40 for Exeter City and 1.80 for Cheltenham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.