Port Vale vs Accrington ST match summary and prediction — League Two
Our model makes Port Vale the pick at 57% for Port Vale vs Accrington ST. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Port Vale face Accrington ST on 14 November 2026 at Vale Park, Stoke on Trent. Port Vale are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 15 fixture in League Two is listed as Port Vale - Accrington ST. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Port Vale: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 13 conceded in eight matches, 1.88 and 1.62 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.3 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -4.
Accrington ST: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 11 conceded in seven matches, 1.86 and 1.57 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.5 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Port Vale | Accrington ST |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -4 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLD | LDWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 7 | 10 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.88 / 1.62 | 1.86 / 1.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.3 | 56.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Port Vale's way at 59%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Port Vale at 57%, a gap of 34 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Port Vale's way, especially at Vale Park.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Port Vale or Accrington ST?
Port Vale, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Port Vale, 23% the draw and 20% Accrington ST.
When and where is Port Vale vs Accrington ST being played?
14 November 2026 at Vale Park, Stoke on Trent, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Port Vale and Accrington ST met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Port Vale and Accrington ST?
Port Vale have taken 10 points from their last five (WWWLD), Accrington ST 8 from theirs (LDWDW). Most recently Port Vale took a 4-2 win at home to Scunthorpe and Accrington ST a 0-2 defeat at home to Wycombe.
How many goals are expected in Port Vale vs Accrington ST?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 2.80 for Port Vale and 2.00 for Accrington ST. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.