Rochdale vs York: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes York the pick at 39% for Rochdale vs York. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
York travel to Rochdale on 14 November 2026 at Spotland Stadium, Rochdale. York are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 15 fixture in League Two is listed as Rochdale - York. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rochdale: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 22 conceded in nine matches, 1.22 and 2.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.4 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -9.
York: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 17 conceded in nine matches, 1.89 and 1.89 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.4 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rochdale | York |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -9 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | WLLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 16 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.22 / 2.44 | 1.89 / 1.89 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.4 | 42.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 39% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Rochdale 29.4 versus York 42.4, a gap of 13.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans York's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards York at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. York's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rochdale or York?
York, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 33% Rochdale, 28% the draw and 39% York.
When and where is Rochdale vs York being played?
14 November 2026 at Spotland Stadium, Rochdale, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Rochdale and York met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rochdale and York?
Rochdale have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), York 7 from theirs (WLLWD). Most recently Rochdale took a 2-1 win away at Fleetwood Town and York a 4-0 win at home to Northampton.
How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs York?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.00 for Rochdale and 2.00 for York. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.