Swindon Town vs Grimsby: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Grimsby the pick at 47% for Swindon Town vs Grimsby. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Grimsby travel to Swindon Town on 14 November 2026 at County Ground, Swindon. Grimsby are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 15 fixture in League Two is listed as Swindon Town - Grimsby. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Swindon Town: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 14 conceded in eight matches, 1.5 and 1.75 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.2 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -2.
Grimsby: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 2.71 and 1.86 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Swindon Town | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -2 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWD | DWWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 5 | 14 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.5 / 1.75 | 2.71 / 1.86 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.2 | 49.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 47% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Swindon Town 51.2 versus Grimsby 49.8, a gap of 1.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Grimsby's way at 56%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Grimsby at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Swindon Town or Grimsby?
Grimsby, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 29% Swindon Town, 24% the draw and 47% Grimsby.
When and where is Swindon Town vs Grimsby being played?
14 November 2026 at County Ground, Swindon, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Swindon Town and Grimsby?
Grimsby 4-0 Swindon Town on 25 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Swindon Town and Grimsby?
Swindon Town have taken 8 points from their last five (LWDWD), Grimsby 8 from theirs (DWWDL). Most recently Swindon Town took a 1-2 defeat away at Milton Keynes Dons and Grimsby a 3-3 draw away at Stafford Rangers.
How many goals are expected in Swindon Town vs Grimsby?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 0.80 for Swindon Town and 3.20 for Grimsby. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.