Oxford United vs Burton Albion — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Oxford United and Burton Albion on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Oxford United host Burton Albion on 12 September 2026 at Kassam Stadium, Oxford. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 44%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 6 fixture in League One is listed as Oxford United - Burton Albion. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Oxford United: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 58 conceded in 44 matches, 1.05 and 1.32 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +3.
Burton Albion: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 29 conceded in 25 matches, 1.36 and 1.16 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Oxford United | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 6th |
| Goal difference | +3 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWD | DWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 44 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.05 / 1.32 | 1.36 / 1.16 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.07 | 1.2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.1 | 52.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 15% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Oxford United 49.1 versus Burton Albion 52.4, a gap of 3.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Oxford United's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. A draw is the nominal pick at 44%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Oxford United or Burton Albion?
Neither side. Our model splits it 41% Oxford United, 44% the draw and 15% Burton Albion, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Oxford United vs Burton Albion being played?
12 September 2026 at Kassam Stadium, Oxford, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Oxford United and Burton Albion met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Oxford United and Burton Albion?
Oxford United have taken 7 points from their last four (WLWD), Burton Albion 8 from theirs (DWLWD). Most recently Oxford United took a 4-0 win away at Leicester and Burton Albion a 2-2 draw at home to Cambridge United.
How many goals are expected in Oxford United vs Burton Albion?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for Oxford United and 0.00 for Burton Albion. It rates over 2.5 goals at 22%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.