Peterborough vs Notts County: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Peterborough the pick at 67% for Peterborough vs Notts County. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Notts County travel to Peterborough on 3 October 2026 at ABAX Stadium, Peterborough. Peterborough are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 67%. This matchday 9 fixture in League One is listed as Peterborough - Notts County. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Peterborough: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 34 conceded in 23 matches, 1.61 and 1.48 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.4 out of 100, and they sit 23rd on a goal difference of -9.
Notts County: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 28 conceded in 26 matches, 1.54 and 1.08 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Peterborough | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 23rd | 20th |
| Goal difference | -9 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLDD | WLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 3 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.61 / 1.48 | 1.54 / 1.08 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.17 | 1.73 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 29.4 | 41.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 67% | 6% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Peterborough 29.4 versus Notts County 41.2, a gap of 11.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 32% and both teams to score at 36%.
- First goal: Leans Peterborough's way at 73%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Peterborough at 67%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. Peterborough's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Peterborough's way, especially at ABAX Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Peterborough or Notts County?
Peterborough, with an implied win probability of roughly 67%. The full split is 67% Peterborough, 27% the draw and 6% Notts County.
When and where is Peterborough vs Notts County being played?
3 October 2026 at ABAX Stadium, Peterborough, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Peterborough and Notts County met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Peterborough and Notts County?
Peterborough have taken 5 points from their last five (LWLDD), Notts County 4 from theirs (WLLD). Most recently Peterborough took a 0-1 defeat away at Stockport County and Notts County a 2-1 win at home to Grimsby.
How many goals are expected in Peterborough vs Notts County?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.20 for Peterborough and 0.60 for Notts County. It rates over 2.5 goals at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 36%, so its call is no.