Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Burton Albion and Leyton Orient on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Leyton Orient travel to Burton Albion on 24 October 2026 at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent. Burton Albion are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 13 fixture in League One is listed as Burton Albion - Leyton Orient. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Burton Albion: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (34 scored and 29 conceded in 25 matches, 1.36 and 1.16 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -2.
Leyton Orient: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and two defeats from the last four, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 0.96 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Burton Albion | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLDL | LWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 6 | 2 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.36 / 1.16 | 0.96 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.2 | 49.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 38% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Burton Albion 41.2 versus Leyton Orient 49.1, a gap of 7.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Burton Albion's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Burton Albion is the nominal pick at 40%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Burton Albion's way, especially at Pirelli Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burton Albion or Leyton Orient?
Burton Albion, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Burton Albion, 22% the draw and 38% Leyton Orient.
When and where is Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient being played?
24 October 2026 at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Burton Albion and Leyton Orient?
Leyton Orient 2-2 Burton Albion on 02 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Burton Albion and Leyton Orient?
Burton Albion have taken 3 points from their last five (DDLDL), Leyton Orient 4 from theirs (LWDL). Most recently Burton Albion took a 0-0 draw at home to Bradford and Leyton Orient a 0-1 defeat away at Reading.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.80 for Burton Albion and 2.00 for Leyton Orient. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.