Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Doncaster the pick at 46% for Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Doncaster face Sheffield Wednesday on 24 October 2026 at Keepmoat Stadium, Doncaster. Doncaster are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 13 fixture in League One is listed as Doncaster - Sheffield Wednesday. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Doncaster: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 36 conceded in 27 matches, 1.19 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -3.
Sheffield Wednesday: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 83 conceded in 43 matches, 0.63 and 1.93 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.5 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Doncaster | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -3 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWW | LWDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 4 | 11 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 27 | 43 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.19 / 1.33 | 0.63 / 1.93 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.44 | 0.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.2 | 47.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 28% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Doncaster 44.2 versus Sheffield Wednesday 47.5, a gap of 3.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Doncaster's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Doncaster at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Sheffield Wednesday's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Doncaster's way, especially at Keepmoat Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Doncaster or Sheffield Wednesday?
Doncaster, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Doncaster, 26% the draw and 28% Sheffield Wednesday.
When and where is Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
24 October 2026 at Keepmoat Stadium, Doncaster, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Doncaster and Sheffield Wednesday met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Doncaster and Sheffield Wednesday?
Doncaster have taken 6 points from their last four (LLWW), Sheffield Wednesday 10 from theirs (LWDWW). Most recently Doncaster took a 0-2 defeat at home to Stockport County and Sheffield Wednesday a 0-2 defeat away at Notts County.
How many goals are expected in Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Doncaster and 1.40 for Sheffield Wednesday. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.