Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Stevenage the pick at 44% for Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Milton Keynes Dons travel to Stevenage on 24 October 2026 at Broadhall Way, Stevenage. Stevenage are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 13 fixture in League One is listed as Stevenage - Milton Keynes Dons. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Stevenage: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 29 conceded in 27 matches, 0.89 and 1.07 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +5.
Milton Keynes Dons: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and two defeats from the last four, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 19 conceded in 23 matches, 1.74 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.9 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Stevenage | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 20th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWW | LWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 27 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.89 / 1.07 | 1.74 / 0.83 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.48 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.2 | 39.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Stevenage 56.2 versus Milton Keynes Dons 39.9, a gap of 16.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Stevenage's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Stevenage at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Stevenage's way, especially at Broadhall Way.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Stevenage or Milton Keynes Dons?
Stevenage, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Stevenage, 31% the draw and 26% Milton Keynes Dons.
When and where is Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons being played?
24 October 2026 at Broadhall Way, Stevenage, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Stevenage and Milton Keynes Dons?
Stevenage have taken 9 points from their last four (WLWW), Milton Keynes Dons 6 from theirs (LWLW). Most recently Stevenage took a 3-0 win at home to Plymouth and Milton Keynes Dons a 0-2 defeat away at Blackpool.
How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.80 for Stevenage and 1.60 for Milton Keynes Dons. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.