Mansfield Town vs Notts County: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Mansfield Town the pick at 41% for Mansfield Town vs Notts County. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Mansfield Town face Notts County on 31 October 2026 at Field Mill, Mansfield. Mansfield Town are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 14 fixture in League One is listed as Mansfield Town - Notts County. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Mansfield Town: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 27 conceded in 26 matches, 1.42 and 1.04 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.7 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +4.
Notts County: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 28 conceded in 26 matches, 1.54 and 1.08 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Mansfield Town | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 19th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWL | DWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 5 | 9 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 26 | 26 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.42 / 1.04 | 1.54 / 1.08 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.5 | 1.73 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 62.7 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Mansfield Town 62.7 versus Notts County 37.6, a gap of 25.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Mansfield Town's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Mansfield Town at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Mansfield Town's way, especially at Field Mill.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mansfield Town or Notts County?
Mansfield Town, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Mansfield Town, 29% the draw and 30% Notts County.
When and where is Mansfield Town vs Notts County being played?
31 October 2026 at Field Mill, Mansfield, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Mansfield Town and Notts County met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Mansfield Town and Notts County?
Mansfield Town have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDWL), Notts County 7 from theirs (DWLWL). Most recently Mansfield Town took a 4-1 win away at Blackpool and Notts County a 1-1 draw at home to Stockport County.
How many goals are expected in Mansfield Town vs Notts County?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.80 for Mansfield Town and 0.80 for Notts County. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.