Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Shakhtar Donetsk the pick at 50% for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Shakhtar Donetsk face Dynamo Kyiv on 8 November 2026 at Arena Lviv, Lviv. Shakhtar Donetsk are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 12 fixture in Premier League is listed as Shakhtar Donetsk - Dynamo Kyiv. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Shakhtar Donetsk: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2024-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 32 conceded in 16 matches, 1.0 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.6 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +17.
Dynamo Kyiv: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2024-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 24 conceded in twelve matches, 0.58 and 2.0 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Side by side
| Statistic | Shakhtar Donetsk | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 3rd |
| Goal difference | +17 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDL | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 2 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2024 season) | 16 | 12 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2024) | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0.58 / 2.0 |
| Points per game (2024) | 0.88 | 0.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 72.6 | 66.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 23% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk 72.6 versus Dynamo Kyiv 66.8, a gap of 5.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Shakhtar Donetsk's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to Shakhtar Donetsk at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Shakhtar Donetsk's way, especially at Arena Lviv.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Shakhtar Donetsk or Dynamo Kyiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Shakhtar Donetsk, 27% the draw and 23% Dynamo Kyiv.
When and where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
8 November 2026 at Arena Lviv, Lviv, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWDL), Dynamo Kyiv 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Shakhtar Donetsk took a 0-1 defeat at home to Sporting CP and Dynamo Kyiv a 2-0 win away at Kryvbas KR.
How many goals are expected in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.60 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.40 for Dynamo Kyiv. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.