Girona vs Castellón match summary and prediction — Segunda División
Our model makes a draw the pick at 48% for Girona vs Castellón. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Girona face Castellón on 12 September 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 48%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 5 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Girona - Castellón. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Girona: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 50 conceded in 34 matches, 0.97 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Castellón: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.7 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Girona | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +4 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLDD | WWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 34 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.97 / 1.47 | 1.7 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.03 | 1.52 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.3 | 59.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 18% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Girona 49.3 versus Castellón 59.3, a gap of 10.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 20% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans Girona's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Girona or Castellón?
Neither side. Our model splits it 34% Girona, 48% the draw and 18% Castellón, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Girona vs Castellón being played?
12 September 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Have Girona and Castellón met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Girona and Castellón?
Girona have taken 8 points from their last five (WWLDD), Castellón 10 from theirs (WWDWL). Most recently Girona took a 2-0 win away at Sporting Gijon and Castellón a 2-0 win at home to Albacete.
How many goals are expected in Girona vs Castellón?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Girona and 1.00 for Castellón. It rates over 2.5 goals at 20%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 65%, so its call is yes.