AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes AD Ceuta FC the pick at 64% for AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
AD Ceuta FC face Valladolid on 20 September 2026 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta. AD Ceuta FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 6 fixture in Segunda División is listed as AD Ceuta FC - Valladolid. Kick-off is 14:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
AD Ceuta FC: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 33 conceded in 19 matches, 1.47 and 1.74 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 21.8 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -13.
Valladolid: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 36 conceded in 21 matches, 0.9 and 1.71 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.1 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | AD Ceuta FC | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 22nd | 17th |
| Goal difference | -13 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLL | LWDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 15 | 2 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.47 / 1.74 | 0.9 / 1.71 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.53 | 0.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 21.8 | 37.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 6% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: AD Ceuta FC 21.8 versus Valladolid 37.1, a gap of 15.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.33, over 2.5 goals at 95% and both teams to score at 74%.
- First goal: Leans AD Ceuta FC's way at 67%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards AD Ceuta FC at 64%, a gap of 34 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts AD Ceuta FC's way, especially at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AD Ceuta FC or Valladolid?
AD Ceuta FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% AD Ceuta FC, 30% the draw and 6% Valladolid.
When and where is AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid being played?
20 September 2026 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta, kick-off 14:15 UTC.
Have AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid?
AD Ceuta FC have taken 0 points from their last five (LLLLL), Valladolid 4 from theirs (LWDLL). Most recently AD Ceuta FC took a 1-3 defeat away at Burgos and Valladolid a 0-3 defeat at home to Oviedo.
How many goals are expected in AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.33 — 2.33 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.00 for Valladolid. It rates over 2.5 goals at 95%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 74%, so its call is yes.