Las Palmas vs Burgos match summary and prediction — Segunda División
Our model makes a draw the pick at 46% for Las Palmas vs Burgos. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Las Palmas host Burgos on 20 September 2026 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 6 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Las Palmas - Burgos. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Las Palmas: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 25 conceded in 21 matches, 1.33 and 1.19 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.6 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +1.
Burgos: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 16 conceded in 23 matches, 1.17 and 0.7 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Las Palmas | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLWW | WDDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 21 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.33 / 1.19 | 1.17 / 0.7 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.57 | 1.91 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.6 | 52.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 15% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Las Palmas 58.6 versus Burgos 52.2, a gap of 6.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.90, over 2.5 goals at 13% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Las Palmas' way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 46%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Las Palmas or Burgos?
Neither side. Our model splits it 38% Las Palmas, 46% the draw and 15% Burgos, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Las Palmas vs Burgos being played?
20 September 2026 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Las Palmas and Burgos?
Las Palmas 0-0 Burgos on 07 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Las Palmas and Burgos?
Las Palmas have taken 10 points from their last five (WDLWW), Burgos 8 from theirs (WDDLW). Most recently Las Palmas took a 1-0 win away at Cadiz and Burgos a 3-1 win at home to AD Ceuta FC.
How many goals are expected in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.90 — 0.40 for Las Palmas and 1.50 for Burgos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 13%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.