Albacete vs Eibar match summary and prediction — Segunda División
Our model makes a draw the pick at 46% for Albacete vs Eibar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Albacete host Eibar on 3 October 2026 at Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 8 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Albacete - Eibar. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Albacete: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 26 conceded in 23 matches, 1.52 and 1.13 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.3 out of 100, and they sit 22nd on a goal difference of -8.
Eibar: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 14 conceded in 21 matches, 1.29 and 0.67 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 77.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Albacete | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 22nd | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -8 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 8 | 13 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.52 / 1.13 | 1.29 / 0.67 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.61 | 1.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.3 | 77.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 15% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Albacete 26.3 versus Eibar 77.2, a gap of 50.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 20 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Albacete's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 46%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Eibar's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Albacete or Eibar?
Neither side. Our model splits it 39% Albacete, 46% the draw and 15% Eibar, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Albacete vs Eibar being played?
3 October 2026 at Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Albacete and Eibar?
Albacete 0-3 Eibar on 24 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Albacete and Eibar?
Albacete have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Eibar 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Albacete took a 0-2 defeat away at Girona and Eibar a 3-2 win at home to Las Palmas.
How many goals are expected in Albacete vs Eibar?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.20 for Albacete and 1.20 for Eibar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.