Almeria vs Burgos match summary and prediction — Segunda División
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for Almeria vs Burgos. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Almeria face Burgos on 3 October 2026. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 8 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Almeria - Burgos. Kick-off is 14:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Almeria: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 40 conceded in 25 matches, 2.0 and 1.6 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Burgos: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 16 conceded in 23 matches, 1.17 and 0.7 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.7 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Almeria | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWL | WWWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 3 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.0 / 1.6 | 1.17 / 0.7 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.84 | 1.91 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.8 | 62.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 18% | 32% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Almeria 66.8 versus Burgos 62.7, a gap of 4.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.90, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Burgos' way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Almeria or Burgos?
Neither side. Our model splits it 18% Almeria, 51% the draw and 32% Burgos, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Almeria vs Burgos being played?
3 October 2026, kick-off 14:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Almeria and Burgos?
Burgos 0-0 Almeria on 09 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Almeria and Burgos?
Almeria have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWWL), Burgos 11 from theirs (WWWDD). Most recently Almeria took a 1-0 win away at Mallorca and Burgos a 1-0 win at home to Eldense.
How many goals are expected in Almeria vs Burgos?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.90 — 0.40 for Almeria and 1.50 for Burgos. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.