Cadiz vs Leganes: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 47% for Cadiz vs Leganes. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Leganes travel to Cadiz on 3 October 2026 at JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 47%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 8 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Cadiz - Leganes. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cadiz: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 35 conceded in 20 matches, 1.0 and 1.75 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.9 out of 100, and they sit 20th on a goal difference of -3.
Leganes: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 28 conceded in 20 matches, 1.0 and 1.4 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cadiz | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLLD | LWLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.75 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.75 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.9 | 48.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 19% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Cadiz 30.9 versus Leganes 48.1, a gap of 17.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Ten places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 10% and both teams to score at 33%.
- First goal: Leans Cadiz's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Leganes' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cadiz or Leganes?
Neither side. Our model splits it 34% Cadiz, 47% the draw and 19% Leganes, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Cadiz vs Leganes being played?
3 October 2026 at JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cadiz and Leganes?
Cadiz 3-0 Leganes on 24 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Cadiz and Leganes?
Cadiz have taken 2 points from their last five (DLLLD), Leganes 7 from theirs (LWLDW). Most recently Cadiz took a 1-1 draw away at Tenerife and Leganes a 0-2 defeat at home to Castellón.
How many goals are expected in Cadiz vs Leganes?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.60 for Cadiz and 0.60 for Leganes. It rates over 2.5 goals at 10%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 33%, so its call is no.