Almeria vs Oviedo: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Almeria the pick at 58% for Almeria vs Oviedo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Almeria face Oviedo on 24 October 2026 at UD Almería Stadium, Almeria. Almeria are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 11 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Almeria - Oviedo. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Almeria: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (50 scored and 40 conceded in 25 matches, 2.0 and 1.6 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 78.2 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +13.
Oviedo: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 54 conceded in 33 matches, 0.67 and 1.64 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Almeria | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 9th |
| Goal difference | +13 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 3 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 33 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.0 / 1.6 | 0.67 / 1.64 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.84 | 0.79 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 78.2 | 55.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 18% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Almeria 78.2 versus Oviedo 55.8, a gap of 22.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Almeria's way at 62%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Almeria at 58%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Almeria's way, especially at UD Almería Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Almeria or Oviedo?
Almeria, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Almeria, 24% the draw and 18% Oviedo.
When and where is Almeria vs Oviedo being played?
24 October 2026 at UD Almería Stadium, Almeria, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Almeria and Oviedo met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Almeria and Oviedo?
Almeria have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Oviedo 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Almeria took a 4-2 win away at Real Sociedad II and Oviedo a 2-1 win away at AD Ceuta FC.
How many goals are expected in Almeria vs Oviedo?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.60 for Almeria and 1.00 for Oviedo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.