Girona vs Celta de Vigo II match summary and prediction — Segunda División
Our model makes Girona the pick at 59% for Girona vs Celta de Vigo II. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Girona face Celta de Vigo II on 24 October 2026 at Estadi Montilivi, Girona. Girona are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This matchday 11 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Girona - Celta de Vigo II. Kick-off is 16:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Girona: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored seven and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.7 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +8.
Celta de Vigo II: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Girona | Celta de Vigo II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 14th |
| Goal difference | +8 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDDWW | DWLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 2 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.7 | 41.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Girona 63.7 versus Celta de Vigo II 41.4, a gap of 22.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Girona's way at 66%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Girona at 59%, a gap of 36 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Girona's way, especially at Estadi Montilivi.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Girona or Celta de Vigo II?
Girona, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Girona, 19% the draw and 22% Celta de Vigo II.
When and where is Girona vs Celta de Vigo II being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadi Montilivi, Girona, kick-off 16:30 UTC.
Have Girona and Celta de Vigo II met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Girona and Celta de Vigo II?
Girona have taken 11 points from their last five (WDDWW), Celta de Vigo II 5 from theirs (DWLDL). Most recently Girona took a 2-0 win at home to FC Andorra and Celta de Vigo II a 1-1 draw at home to Tenerife.
How many goals are expected in Girona vs Celta de Vigo II?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Girona and 1.00 for Celta de Vigo II. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.