Burgos vs Castellón: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Burgos the pick at 41% for Burgos vs Castellón. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Burgos face Castellón on 1 November 2026 at Municipal El Plantio, Burgos. Burgos are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 12 fixture in Segunda División is listed as Burgos - Castellón. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Burgos: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 16 conceded in 23 matches, 1.17 and 0.7 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +4.
Castellón: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 33 conceded in 23 matches, 1.7 and 1.43 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +18.
Side by side
| Statistic | Burgos | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +4 | +18 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLL | WWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 11 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.17 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.91 | 1.52 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.0 | 62.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 34% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Burgos 56.0 versus Castellón 62.8, a gap of 6.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Burgos' way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Burgos at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Burgos's way, especially at Municipal El Plantio.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burgos or Castellón?
Burgos, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Burgos, 25% the draw and 34% Castellón.
When and where is Burgos vs Castellón being played?
1 November 2026 at Municipal El Plantio, Burgos, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Burgos and Castellón?
Castellón 3-1 Burgos on 18 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Burgos and Castellón?
Burgos have taken 9 points from their last five (WWWLL), Castellón 10 from theirs (WWWLD). Most recently Burgos took a 4-2 win away at Laredo and Castellón a 3-0 win away at Conquense.
How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Castellón?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 2.20 for Burgos and 2.60 for Castellón. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.