AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes AD Ceuta FC the pick at 46% for AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
AD Ceuta FC host Sporting Gijon on 1 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta. AD Ceuta FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 12 fixture in Segunda División is listed as AD Ceuta FC - Sporting Gijon. Kick-off is 15:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
AD Ceuta FC: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 33 conceded in 19 matches, 1.47 and 1.74 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.6 out of 100, and they sit 21st on a goal difference of -15.
Sporting Gijon: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 25 conceded in 20 matches, 1.45 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | AD Ceuta FC | Sporting Gijon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 21st | 8th |
| Goal difference | -15 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLD | WLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 9 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.47 / 1.74 | 1.45 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.53 | 1.3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.6 | 54.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: AD Ceuta FC 34.6 versus Sporting Gijon 54.5, a gap of 19.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans AD Ceuta FC's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to AD Ceuta FC at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Sporting Gijon's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts AD Ceuta FC's way, especially at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AD Ceuta FC or Sporting Gijon?
AD Ceuta FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% AD Ceuta FC, 23% the draw and 31% Sporting Gijon.
When and where is AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon being played?
1 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon?
Sporting Gijon 1-2 AD Ceuta FC on 03 May 2026.
What is the recent form of AD Ceuta FC and Sporting Gijon?
AD Ceuta FC have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLLD), Sporting Gijon 12 from theirs (WLWWW). Most recently AD Ceuta FC took a 2-1 win away at Poblense and Sporting Gijon a 3-1 win away at Guijuelo.
How many goals are expected in AD Ceuta FC vs Sporting Gijon?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 0.80 for AD Ceuta FC and 1.00 for Sporting Gijon. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.